The Luzon-wide lockdown has achieved “relative success” but COVID19 could still trigger outbreaks in Metro Manila and 15 provinces, experts said.
MANILA -- The Luzon-wide lockdown has achieved “relative success” but COVID-19 could still trigger outbreaks in Metro Manila and 15 provinces, experts from the University of the Philippines said.
But the government should also prepare for possible outbreaks in 13 areas in Luzon, 2 provinces in the Visayas, and 1 in Mindanao, according to study, which cited reported cases from these areas as of April 9. One option, according to the study, is to continue the enhanced community quarantine in high-risk areas, and implement stricter measures in those with an even higher probability of an outbreak, according to the study.
“Our best recourse after April 30 is to implement graduated activation of enhanced community quarantine depending on the level of risk in certain areas at a given time.” The figure was based on a reproduction number of 2, meaning a person sick with COVID-19 can infect 2 others. If the infection rate is 4, the country would need 64,431 beds. In this case, Metro Manila alone would need 53,612 beds.Ventilators might also be a problem despite the country’s current supply of 1,572 units, based on a survey by the Philippine College of Physicians as of March 22 this year.
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