Three of the four major banks got it wrong when they forecast house prices to rise modestly in 2022. Only SQM’s Louis Christopher anticipated price falls.
Economists at three of the nation’s four major banks failed to read the tea leaves when they predicted a year ago that house prices would keep rising in 2022, albeit at a far more pedestrian pace.
Leading the slump was Sydney, which recorded a 12.1 per cent correction to leave the city’s median home value at just over $1 million, while Melbourne home values retreated 8.1 per cent to end the year at $725,000, and on track to wipe out all of their COVID period gains.and others facing the prospect of selling their homes at a loss – was anticipated by any bank economist.
Dr Oliver said he expected house prices to start falling at some point “later” in 2022, followed by a 5-10 per cent decline in 2023. “But much depends on where and when the cash rate peaks,” he said. “If it rises above 4 per cent, there will be no recovery for 2023.”
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