Cocoa’s rally has soared past all major commodities in 2024, and there’s little sign the tight supply and fragile trading landscape that prompted its near-vertical trajectory are in for a fast fix. Prices have almost tripled as faltering production in West Africa—the world’s biggest growing region—spurred massive supply shortages.
Cocoa’s rally has soared past all major commodities in 2024, and there’s little sign the tight supply and fragile trading landscape that prompted its near-vertical trajectory are in for a fast fix.
“At these levels it’s all pain,” said Vladimir Zientek, a trading associate at financial services firm StoneX Group Inc. “As we have seen countless times this year, if this market wants to trend in one direction, it has all the power to do so.” Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are still grappling to fulfill contracts they were forced to roll over from the last season.
Limited selling of futures by commercial players, after last season’s shortfall in bean deliveries, has helped drive their gross short positions in the New York exchange to the lowest seasonal level since 2011, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Tracey Allen. That has further drained liquidity, making the market even more vulnerable to large price swings.
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