Big Bling’s fortunes are inextricably linked to China, whose shoppers are estimated to have accounted for 17 per cent to 19 per cent of global spending in 2022.
Since the devastation of the earliest outbreaks, which saw stores close across China and the US, sellers of luxury goods have enjoyed a remarkable recovery. This was initially driven by China’s first reopening in 2020, but it passed the bling baton to the US in 2021. As China experienced renewed COVID-19 waves and subsequent lockdowns, American shoppers kept snapping up Hermes bags and Rolex watches at home and then in Europe once travel resumed and the dollar surged.
Although some shoppers may spend with abandon, others may be more reluctant to splurge. After all, 2020 turned out to be a false dawn. It was followed by rolling restrictions, which sapped enthusiasm. Against this more uncertain backdrop, Hermes International looks best placed. Waiting lists for its iconic bags, such as the Kelly, provide some resilience against leaner times. And it would be one of the main beneficiaries of China’s reopening given its brand desirability there.
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