The tsunami of Covid-19 that’s taking hold across China is spurring concern that a dangerous new variant could emerge for the first time in more than a year, just as genetic sequencing to catch such a threat is dwindling.
The situation in China is unique because of the path it’s followed throughout the pandemic. While almost every other part of the world has battled infections and embraced vaccinations with potent mRNA shots to varying degrees, China largely sidestepped both. The result is a population with low levels of immunity facing a wave of disease caused by the most contagious strain of the virus yet to circulate.
The closest precedent to what could happen, Lucey says, is the experience with the Delta variant in India in late 2020 when millions of people were infected over a short period of time and the deadly strain raced around the globe. While it’s not inevitable, the world must protectively prepare for such an event so that vaccines, treatments and other necessary measures can be ready, he said.
“It might be that China catches up, and what comes out is more of what we have already seen,” said Stuart Turville, a virologist at the University of New South Wales’ Kirby Institute, who has conducted research showing that existing antibodies in some people bind even to emerging variants. “Our antibodies are mature enough to deal with them.”
“It’s a different situation,” said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban. “It’s going through a population that doesn’t have a lot of immunity. Just because there are more infections doesn’t mean we’ll have nastier infections.” “With respect to new dangerous variants emerging from China, I’m not particularly concerned right now,” he said. “I don’t think the situation in China significantly affects the situation everywhere else,” he said. “Could something out of the blue emerge and cause problems? Maybe—but we can’t predict it and it isn’t what I expect,” he said.
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