THOSE who believe the world economy can avoid the hardest of landings next year are watching China closely to see whether its move to loosen pandemic restrictions will help that scenario come about or end up wrecking it.
Women sit in a Starbucks Café in Dandong, Liaoning province, China, Dec. 22, 2018. — REUTERS/TINGSHU WANG
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda cited the resurgence of virus cases in China as putting downward pressure on the global economy, while Taiwan listed the spread of COVID-19 in China as one big uncertainty facing its economy. “If you look forward six months to the exit of the COVID wave… we’ll be getting to a point where China just like everyone else gets to live with COVID,” said Mike Gallagher, director of research at Continuum Economics.One such bump could be if global supply chains are disrupted again as Chinese workers start to fall sick in large numbers, reigniting inflation elsewhere just as central bankers see signs it has finally started to peak.
“It’s a risky situation,” he said while adding it “doesn’t seem like it’s likely to have a material overall effect on us.” The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, launched about a year ago, already edged higher in October and November in a moderate reversal of a persistent loosening of global supply bottlenecks seen through most of 2022.
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