The wet weather cycle that deluged the east coast is breaking down but by next summer, there’s a 50-50 chance the east coast will get either balmy weather or the dreaded dry El Nino cycle that brings heat, drought and bushfires
said all seven of the international climate models it surveys are forecasting the warm ocean along the east coast will cool down and temperatures will return into neutral by the end of February.Australian National University climate scientist Professor Mark Howden said the La Nina climate cycle was forecast to fizzle out by the middle of the year and it was an even-money bet if El Nino would develop by the end of the year.
El Nino brings colder water to the east coast of Australia, which means lower evaporation, less cloud cover and drier conditions – all of which significantly increases the risk of drought, heatwaves and bushfires.“The projections after that for our next summer are roughly 50-50 for neutral or El Nino conditions,” Howden said.“For the next few months, we still have got a lot of warm water around Australia and to our north, with a lot of cold water through the Central Pacific.
“It is typically hard to detect a signal in the climate markers at the start of a year, but the indications usually grow strong enough by July to make a prediction of what the next summer holds in store,” Howden said.Australia’s average temperature has increased by 1.
While most severe heatwaves, droughts and bushfires materialise during El Nino years, some El Ninos can deliver relatively mild summers and about average rainfall.
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