Wind and solar power met more than 40 per cent of electricity demand late last year but they are not growing fast enough to reach 2030 targets, UNSW data shows.
Renewable energy contributed a record 40.4 per cent of the National Electricity Market supply in the December quarter, but growth is slipping further behind the levels needed to meet the 2030 target and has not been enough to prevent a surge in average wholesale prices.
By the end of the year, wholesale prices had softened by 60-70 per cent from their peaks in the June quarter but in some states, the December quarter average prices were still double or triple the levels of a year earlier, at more than $100 a megawatt-hour in NSW, Queensland and Tasmania. Meeting the targets would require a sharp rise in the generation of renewable energy but the rate of increase in wind and solar has slowed since 2021, expanding by 16.6 per cent to 7.9 terawatt-hours compared with the 21.6 per cent growth recorded between 2020 and 2021.“To be aligned with the Australian Energy Market Operator’s ‘step change’ scenario – and indeed the federal government’s 82 per cent target by 2030 – the rate needs to be almost double that ,” Dr McConnell said.
“The passage of our Climate Act was essential in providing the investment certainty for renewable energy investment,” he said. “Of course it’s true that our 82 per cent target is ambitious. But after ten years of denial and delay, ambition is exactly what we need”, driving up demand for gas for power generation amid subdued output from wind and solar farms.
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