An influential model tracking the coronavirus pandemic in the United States now predicts that fewer people will die and fewer hospital beds will be needed compared to its estimates from last week.
As of Monday, the model predicted the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That's about 12,000 fewer deaths — and 121,000 fewer hospital beds — than the model estimated on Thursday.
But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures — such as closing schools and businesses — will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths. Those regions seem to have reached their peaks more quickly in the wake of social distancing measures, according to the researchers. That means that some states — such as Florida, Virginia, Louisiana and West Virginia — are now expected to hit their peaks earlier than previously expected, potentially giving them less time to prepare.
Based on cell phone mobility data, for example, researchers found that"there's variability across state[s] in how mandates are being interpreted." Moving forward, researchers plan to explore whether incorporating that data will further improve predictions, Murray said.Early versions of the model had little data on how patients fared after being hospitalized in the United States, but the version released Monday includes more granular information now available from state governments.
On Thursday, for example, the model predicted that patients who needed intensive care would only stay in the hospital for eight days until being discharged. Now, they're expected to be hospitalized for 20. But patients who didn't need intensive care were originally thought to need a 15-day stay, compared to just over a week now.
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