While experts differ on whether a new offensive is imminent, one year on the picture is very different to what was predicted
was planning a big new effort this year, evidence of preparations for a push similar to that of February 2022, involving a large-scale armoured attack, remains thin.
Despite last year’s mobilisation, analysts such as Phillips O’Brien of St Andrews University believe Russian capabilities are degraded by the war and that those expecting a rerun of the initial invasion last year are wrong. Another is that Russia fears a major new Ukrainian offensive and has increased the tempo of attacks – at an extremely high cost – to tie down Ukrainian forces. A third view is that Russia wants to capture Bakhmut before the 24 February anniversary for propaganda purposes, rather than anything meaningful.
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