When exactly will India surpass China as most populous? | Mike Schneider & Sibi Arasu / The Associated Press

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When exactly will India surpass China as most populous? | Mike Schneider & Sibi Arasu / The Associated Press
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India will surpass China’s population this month. Or maybe in July. Or, perhaps it’s happened already?

Demographers are unsure exactly when India will take the title as the most populous nation in the world because they’re relying on estimates to make their best guess. But they know it’s going to happen soon, if it hasn’t occurred by now.

“It’s a crude approximation, a best guess,” said Patrick Gerland, chief of the population estimates and projections section at the UN in New York. “The reality, of course, is that these estimates are just that,” Gietel-Basten said. “But at least they are based on a relatively solid and consistent methodology.”The foundations of both nations’ numbers are censuses, or head counts, conducted every decade.

Among the most important is the Sample Registration System, India’s large-scale demographic survey that gathers data on such things as births, deaths, fertility and more.

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