If China were to seize one of Taiwan's outlying islands, the US would have few good options to respond without risking a major escalation and a war between the superpowers.
The scenario, outlined in a report from the Center for a New American Security, began with China using military force to take control of Dongsha, a tiny atoll in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong, where approximately 500 Taiwanese troops are stationed.
"The United States and Taiwan must begin coordinating today to build a credible deterrent against limited Chinese aggression or coercion toward Taiwan," the authors wrote. In every scenario, cooperation with Japan was critical to establishing an effective deterrent.
But the issue is a major focus for the administration and China's plans for Taiwan are among the"preeminent issues" for the CIA's new China Mission Center, a newly-created body focused exclusively on gathering and analyzing intelligence on Beijing, CIA Deputy Director David Cohen said at an intelligence conference this week.
"There's a series of number-one issues with China," Cohen said."Taiwan is definitely one of the number one issues with China we are focused on."
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