The election of Donald Trump—and his vow to once again undertake a US retreat from international climate diplomacy—poses a decisive threat to the fight against global warming, as the window for meaningful action closes.
Trump’s win comes just days before representatives from nearly 200 nations gather in Azerbaijan for COP29, the annual United Nations climate summit. That two-week meeting will start Monday in the shadow of a Republican president-elect who has promised to lead another withdrawal from the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement.
Beyond the fallout at COP29, there could be far more sweeping consequences. Another US retreat from climate cooperation has the potential to obliterate any lingering hope of keeping the world’s temperature rise below 1.5°C, a critical goal enshrined in the Paris Agreement. The US also has wielded its diplomatic might—and leveraged its existing relationships with other nations—to secure bigger international climate agreements and deeper emission-cutting pledges. It’s “a pretty powerful diplomacy machine,” said Jake Schmidt, senior strategic director of international climate at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “Having the US not driving that diplomacy will definitely hurt the push to get more finance and more action.
Trump’s ascension could shift the balance of power to other countries and blocs, strengthening the role for the European Union in landing a deal. It could also intensify pressure on the EU to reach an agreement with China, which is being pressured to join the group of wealthy nations contributing to annual climate finance targets.
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