'Surveys say BBM will win' In my statistics class in college and in our MBA class, we were taught that a reliable survey must have an error margin of no more than 2 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent. Read more here:
In my statistics class in college and in our MBA class, we were taught that a reliable survey must have an error margin of no more than 2 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
Assume a voter turnout of 60 million on election day. The 60 percent of 60 million is 36 million votes. BBM can expect, with a high degree of confidence , he will get 36 million votes on May 9. Robredo’s 15 percent translates into just 9 million votes—or 27 million FEWER than BBM’s 36 million votes. Subtract 15 from 60, you get a winning margin of 45 percentage points.
Leni studied economics at UP, where statistics is routinely taught. She finished law, where she learned the rule of evidence. So when she claims surveys are simply the sentiment of respondents in the survey and not those of the voting population, she is being dishonest. Yet, she runs on the platform of clean government. A clean government is a mindset. It starts with the mind. If the mind is dishonest, how can you have a clean government?Out of nine surveys, BBM has averaged 57 percent; Leni 15.
In its February 2004 survey, Pulse Asia predicted Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s victory, 31.9 percent vs. 31.7 percent of Fernando Poe Jr.
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