South Korean nuclear proliferation in the face of increasing aggression from the north is inevitable. It is only a matter of when, writes Professor Joseph M. Siracusa.
Its President Yoon Suk Yeol said publicly this week that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, Seoul would consider building its own stockpile of the deadly weapons.
South Korea simply doesn’t believe the US will honour its nuclear guarantee in a showdown with the north.In 1961 – a year before the Cuban Missile Crisis – French President Charles De Gaulle famously asked US President John Kennedy if he would exchange New York for Paris.“I don’t believe the US would fight a nuke war solely for non-Americans.”
“It’s possible that the problem gets worse,” Yoon went on, “and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own.” In a recent poll, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs observed, among other things, that “71 percent of South Korean respondents supported the development of a domestic nuclear weapons program to counter the growing threat from North Korea.”
South Korean proponents of the bomb argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a South Korea facing a dangerous and uncertain region surrounded by nuclear-armed neighbours; critics on the other hand maintain that nuclear weapons, at best, will only bring about limited benefits for Seoul, while leading to significant costs and perhaps even greater instability on the Korean Peninsula.Few nations on the planet are as vulnerable to nuclear strikes or threats as South Korea.
If push came to shove, would Washington be willing to lose Los Angeles or Chicago to a North Korean reprisal?Or would Washington adjust to the fait accompli of a quick North Korean takeover of the Peninsula?A key reason for South Korea to proceed with acquiring nuclear weapons would be to directly deter North Korea, which is no longer interested in the complete or limited denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.
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