The full impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global trade and energy trends is still unclear.
expects falling Russian oil exports to soon contribute to a plateau in global demand for fossil fuels and so offer the potential for a faster transition towards green energy.
But that still requires more than the record $1.4-trillion investment in clean energy the IEA sees for 2022. For the economy, the risk is that energy prices – and hence inflation – will be squeezed higher if shortfalls are not met.The 2007-2008 financial crisis and election victories for politicians advocating protectionism had already paused a two-decade spurt in globalization that saw containerization expand and both Russia and China enter the world trade system.
Now the question is whether Western sanctions on Russia – which effectively cordon off what was the world’s 11th largest economy – are the start of a further entrenchment as countries restrict trading partners to those they see as allies.
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