Record heat pushed 2024 above global warming threshold of 1.5°C | Eric Roston

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Record heat pushed 2024 above global warming threshold of 1.5°C | Eric Roston
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Earth’s warming exceeded 1.5C on an annual basis for the first time in 2024, according to two major climate science agencies. It’s the most potent evidence yet that countries are failing to meet a Paris Agreement goal of limiting global heating to that level as a decades-long average.

The amount of time left to avoid eclipsing the goal “is now wafer thin,” said Colin Morice, a UK Met Office scientist, in a statement.

The hottest day ever recorded happened on July 21, 2024—a record that held until July 22. The planetary heat spike was made 2.5 times more likely by greenhouse gases, according to researchers. Typhoon Gaemi in Asia and Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the US, similarly juiced by climate change, killed hundreds of people and caused colossal damage.

The landmark status for 2024 can be partly explained by the first five months coinciding with El Niño, a natural warm phase that supercharges global weather. But the planet is heating up so fast that even years with cooling trends, known as La Niña, are counted among the hottest of all time. The Met Office expects 2025 to be the third hottest, behind 2024 and 2023.

With the current conundrum—call it the ‘anti-hiatus’—scientists can point to physical reasons that are likely contributing to the fast-rising heat. They just don’t know yet which reasons are most important, or how long the trend will continue. Low-lying clouds reflect light back out to space, the way white polar ice caps do. They’re a part of the Earth’s albedo, or surface brightness. Sparser low clouds mean more heat hitting us where we live, and that’s what’s been happening in the last 20 years, especially the last several.

“Usually we do our small pieces of puzzles here and there, having small contributions to the big conversation,” Goessling said. “This one is only a small piece of a big puzzle, but still, it is one that fitted so neatly.”

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