Putin has no successor, no living rivals and no retirement plan—why his eventual death will set off a vicious power struggle | Robert Person, United States Military Academy West Point / The Conversation

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Putin has no successor, no living rivals and no retirement plan—why his eventual death will set off a vicious power struggle | Robert Person, United States Military Academy West Point / The Conversation
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Two things are certain concerning Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. First, he was reelected as president in the rigged election that ran from March 15 to 17, 2024, by a resounding—if fraudulent—margin. Second, he is not immortal.

First, he was reelected as president in the rigged election that ran from March 15 to 17, 2024, by a resounding—if fraudulent—margin.

As a scholar of Russian politics and foreign policy who has studied Putin’s regime for the past 25 years, I have watched him build a dictatorship in Russia that rivals the repressive Soviet Union in both its brutality and corruption. There are bitter rivalries even among Putin’s inner circle of cronies. Usually Putin manages to keep those struggles in check, but the 2023 revolt by Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin against the Ministry of Defense shows how deadly these competitions can turn. Prigozhin was killed in an August 2023 plane crash whose real cause may never be known, but Putin’s hand is widely suspected.

The oligarchs’ wealth and freedom are conditional on staying in Putin’s good graces. Cross him and they could lose everything. Jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky learned that in 2003 when, after criticizing Putin, he was imprisoned and saw his Yukos oil company seized by the state.

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