Potential Republican control of at least one chamber of the US Congress sets the stage for economically risky battles in 2023 over federal spending limits and the government’s response should a recession develop.
Results of Tuesday’s election remain uncertain, with President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Democratic party performing better than expected and potentially in position to retain control of the Senate.
Under President Barack Obama, the GOP used debt ceiling talks to force federal spending cuts at a point when the economy was still struggling to its feet following the deep 2007 to 2009 recession, a “fiscal drag” that Fed officials bemoaned at the time as sapping already weak economic growth. In the end voters punished the incumbent Democratic party less than pre-election polls suggested, even after Republicans used the campaign’s closing weeks to emphasize rising food and gas prices.
In a recent Fed survey of bank loan officers, more than 57% of respondents put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 60% or more, though it was also expected to be only mild or moderate in nature.
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