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PHILIPPINE economic growth will likely miss the government’s target next year amid external headwinds and risks that could derail the country’s recovery, analysts said.The Development Budget Coordination Committee on Dec. 15 revised its growth target for 2024 to 6.5-7.5%, narrower than the previous 6.5-8% goal.
For its part, the International Monetary Fund said the economy could grow by 6% in 2024, while the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Ofce sees GDP expanding by 6.3%, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has a 6.1% growth forecast for the Philippines next year.rst nine months of the year. To meet the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target for 2023, the economy must expand by 7.2% in the fourth quarter.Mr.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. this month said the Monetary Board sees the need to keep policy settings “suf“Inflation also has been quite volatile and could continue to be volatile depending upon the path of food-price inflation. Another spike in inflation would slow consumer spending and the broader economy,” Mr. Cochrane added.“Household consumption, which contributes the bulk to spending, has remained in expansion but has seen a gradual moderation in pace.
“Net exports, which was a key contributor to the surprise third-quarter GDP, delivering roughly 1.6 percentage points to GDP, will likely revert to weighing on overall GDP as early as the fourth quarter and going into 2024,” Mr. Mapa added. “Geopolitical tensions in the region also provide risks, such as the posturing in the South China Sea that could also have a negative impact on the Philippine economy. This is because businesses may be hesitant to invest in the Philippines if they are concerned about the stability of the region,” Mr. Roces added.
A rebound in consumer spending due to lower interest rates in the second half of the year and improved wages could boost domestic demand in 2024, he said.
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