The PAGASA is not discounting the possibility that the looming El Niño could reach “strong” intensity by the end of 2023, which means its impact could be more severe than a mild event. ManilaBulletin
The magnitude of the looming El Niño has an 87 percent chance that it will be "weak" and a 67 percent chance that it will be "moderate."PAGASA will upgrade its advisory from “El Niño Watch” to “El Niño Alert” next month.
“For the strength of this El Niño event, it [the forecast] shows that the probability for a weak to moderate El Niño is more than 50 percent, 87 percent na magiging be weak, and 67 percent na magiging moderate,” Abastillas said. “‘Yung similar conditions of the forecasted El Niño event this year is puwedeng nating maihahalintulad sa 2004-2005 El Niño, which is also weak El Niño. Nagstart siya ng June-July-August and nag-end ng January-February-March, or ‘yung moderate El Niño noong 2002 and 2003 na nag-start ng May-June-July at nag-end ng January-February-March ,” she said.
This means that the probability of El Niño developing in the next couple of months has increased to 80 percent.
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