If Iran’s current regime ends, don’t expect democracy to take its place
Peter Jones is a professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.is the most serious threat to the Islamic Republic since it was founded in 1979. Fed up with hypocrisy, corruption and brutality, ordinary Iranians are courageously demanding the end of the current order. Can they succeed?
, like any other country, has armed forces for its defence, the Revolutionary Guard is an additional force that defends the tenets of the Islamic revolution. Smaller in number than the regular military, but still large and much better trained, equipped and paid, the Revolutionary Guard is a critical institution in Iran.
Splits within the Guard leadership are thus something to watch for. If unrest does lead to the end of the Islamic Republic, and elements of the Guard join the protesters while also acting to protect their own economic interests, what kind of Iran might emerge?The Iranian people – especially women – would likely have more freedom over their personal choices. This would be a great relief to a people repressed for decades. But don’t confuse this potential scenario with democracy.
Would Israel want that? The underlying reason for Israel’s increasing ties with Arab states in the Persian Gulf is a shared fear of revolutionary Iran. But if the chance of a relationship with Iran were to re-emerge, my bet is that Israel would take it.
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