OPEC's demand forecast for 2023 is more optimistic than that of the International Energy Agency, another closely watched forecaster.
OPEC expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 1.7 million bpd, lagging demand growth and a slowdown from 2022. As a result, OPEC forecast the world will need 30.1 million bpd in 2023 from its members to balance the market, up 900,000 bpd from 2022., have been struggling to deliver on pledged output hikes in 2022 to unwind huge cuts made in 2020.by some members. Adding to skepticism on this, Saudi Arabia has been pumping below its OPEC quota despite near-record prices.
OPEC’s report showed OPEC output bucked that trend in June, rising by 234,000 bpd to 28.72 million bpd with increases led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Even so, Saudi Arabia was assessed by the secondary sources used by OPEC as pumping 10.59 million bpd in June, below its OPEC quota. Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.65 million bpd, close to the quota of 10.66 million bpd.
The United States is expected to make the biggest contribution to non-OPEC supply next year although there is no acceleration expected in shale oil growth. OPEC expects supply of US tight oil, another term for shale, to rise by 710,000 bpd in 2023, a slowdown from 880,000 bpd in 2022, despite high prices that in previous years have encouraged faster growth.
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