New COVID-19 model predicts over 1 million deaths in China through 2023

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New COVID-19 model predicts over 1 million deaths in China through 2023
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China's zero-COVID policy may have been effective at keeping earlier variants of the virus at bay, but the high transmissibility of Omicron variants made it impossible to sustain, says IHME Director Christopher Murray.

CHICAGO, USA – China’s abrupt lifting of stringent COVID-19 restrictions could result in an explosion of cases and over a million deaths through 2023, according to new projections from the US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation .

“Nobody thought they would stick to zero-COVID as long as they did,” Murray said on Friday, December 16, when the IHME projections were released online. “China has since the original Wuhan outbreak barely reported any deaths. That is why we looked to Hong Kong to get an idea of the infection fatality rate,” Murray said.

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