The Federal Reserve’s messaging appears “inconsistent” with what’s happening in the economy and investors should be wary of it, JPMorgan’s economists say.
JPMorgan is not buying the latest messaging from the US Federal Reserve, on how much further interest rates will rise, where the peak lies and in particular, the Fed’s bleak forecast for inflation.
“Compared with the Fed’s [Summary of Economic Projections], we expect a peak rate of 4.50-4.75 per cent in February v the median in the SEP at 5.10 per cent in 2023. “While this reasoning is sound, relative to our micro level inflation forecasts, non-shelter core services inflation would need to run consistently near the peaks of sequential increases for all of next year to achieve the 3.5 per cent SEP forecast.
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