![[In This Economy] El Niño-nomics: How intense heat is drying up the Philippine economy](https://i.headtopics.com/images/2024/5/3/rapplerdotcom/in-this-economy-el-nino-nomics-how-intense-heat-is-in-this-economy-el-nino-nomics-how-intense-heat-is-C06DAD21A4062DF5BAC26983AD9520AA.webp)
Data from the US shows that we will likely transition from El Niño to La Nina in the next few months. The question is: will the Marcos administration prepare better this time?
This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.
So it should not be surprising that we experienced extreme, debilitating heat in this year’s El Niño.Celsius – already within “extreme danger” levels that could cause heat strokes. Other parts of the country were not spared: temperatures reached 49 degrees in Camarines Sur, and 47 degrees in Nueva Ecija, Olongapo City, and Pangasinan.
They found that a one-degree Celsius increase of annual mean temperature reduces GDP growth by 0.37 percentage point. That is statistically significant: you can rule out that it’s because of chance. And the effect rises to 0.47 percentage point if you take into account El Niño events. Likely because of the drop in agricultural output, inflation also increases with average temperatures. Specifically, a one-degree Celsius increase of temperatures increases headline inflation by 0.77 percentage point, an effect that could last as much as four years before dissipating! The effect is larger for inflation of food items, in particular.
Since high interest rates tend to have a chokehold on the economy , we might have to endure slower-than-usual growth for a bit longer.
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