Bellwether markets in South Korea and Indonesia are showing signs that the worst may be over.
. Rather than collapsing, benchmark 10-year bonds in Indonesia have held up relatively well: the yield premium over Treasuries has actually narrowed this year.
“In 6 to 12 months time, when inflation comes off globally and Fed tightening slows, that might benefit the won,” said Bank of Singapore strategist Moh Siong Sim.The moves are a far cry from the outset of the last Fed tightening cycle in 2013, when India and Indonesia were counted among the so-called “fragile five” emerging market countries, with assets on the front line of vulnerability to rising US rates.
“What we’ve been pleasantly surprised with so far is that this time round the Asian markets have actually held up relatively well given the pressure that they’ve been under,” said Thu Ha Chow, head of fixed income for Asia at Dutch asset manager Robeco. Neither country has lifted policy rates from pandemic lows, inviting downward pressure on their currencies that could in turn exacerbate inflation and outflows. Investors expect both to move soon, however.
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