The Boston Consulting Group report predicts the worst stretch of stagnant globalisation since the WTO was established more than a quarter-century ago.
| International trade will grow more slowly than the global economy over most of the next decade as the war in Ukraine reshapes strategic alliances and alters the flow of cross-border commerce, a new report says.
World trade’s annual expansion rate will average 2.3 per cent through 2031, compared with an increase in global gross domestic product of 2.5 per cent on average each year over the same period, according to forecasts from Boston Consulting Group.Trade largely tracked the growth rate of world GDP during the decade preceding the pandemic.
Under the shakeout outlined by BCG, the next nine years of trade upheaval will create the following winners and losers:The European Union will boost its trade with the US by $US338 billion , driven largely by American energy exports to Europe, and will also expand its combined trade with ASEAN countries, Africa, the Middle East and India.
Russia’s trade with China and India will grow by $US110 billion, “including $US90 billion with China alone” the consultancy said. South-East Asia, however, will be the main winner, with an estimated $US1 trillion in new trade tied largely to new commerce with China, Japan, the US. The EU-ASEAN trade with China will grow by $US438 billion, the largest interregional advance.
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