The population of almost every country will be shrinking by the end of the century, a major study said Wednesday, warning that baby booms in developing nations and busts in rich ones will drive massive social change.
PARIS, France —
By 2050, the population of three quarters of all countries will be shrinking, according to the study by the US-based Institute For Health Metrics and Evaluation . During this century, fertility rates will continue to increase in developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, even as they tumble in wealthier, ageing nations.
Communication about the figures "should not be sensationalised, but nuanced, balancing between gloom and optimism," the WHO experts wrote in The Lancet. She pointed out that the Lancet study predicts the global fertility rate will fall below replacement levels around 2030, "whereas the UN predicts this to occur around 2050".
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