The AEMO expects demand for gas in Western Australia to outstrip supply over the next four years, just as the state is facing potential blackouts over this summer.
The Australian Energy Market Operator is forecasting that demand for gas in Western Australia will outstrip supply over the next four years, adding another element of risk in the outlook for energy security in a state already facing potential blackouts this summer.
AEMO’s executive general manager WA and strategy, Kate Ryan, said the shortfalls are being driven by changes in production and increased demand, including for power generation and for new resources projects. AEMO said earlier this month that it had received proposals for more than 200 megawatts of supplementary reserve capacity in response to a tender for additional supply or load curtailment from industry in evenings from December to the start of April.
AEMO estimates that demand for gas for power generation in WA’s main grid in the south-west will increase from 127 terajoules a day in 2023 to 304 TJ/day in 2032 as Synergy gradually closes down coal power stations. WA’s total demand for gas is forecast to increase from 1099 TJ/day next year to 1278 TJ/day in 2032, representing annual growth of 1.7 per cent. Decarbonisation in the iron ore mining sector would partially offset demand growth, with gas use in iron ore seen falling from 137 TJ/day to 107 TJ/day over the next decade despite increasing production.
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