A recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a greater than one percent chance of colliding with Earth in eight years. While the probability remains relatively low, the potential impact could cause widespread devastation. Scientists are closely monitoring the asteroid and exploring various mitigation strategies.
A recently discovered asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4 , poses a potential threat to Earth with a greater than one percent chance of collision in about eight years. Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, comparable to a football field. If it collides with Earth , the impact could cause city-level devastation depending on the location. The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.
Its unusual trajectory and brightness caught the attention of scientists, prompting continuous observation and risk assessment. By January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a memo highlighting the potential threat, with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory calculating a 1.6 percent chance of impact on December 22, 2032. Possible impact sites include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. While the probability of an impact remains relatively low, the potential consequences are significant. The asteroid's explosive energy upon atmospheric entry would be estimated at around eight megatons of TNT, exceeding 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. The Tunguska Event of 1908, caused by an asteroid fragment exploding over Siberia, serves as a historical comparison, flattening vast areas of forest. The good news is that scientists have ample time to prepare and potentially mitigate the risk. NASA's DART mission successfully demonstrated a 'kinetic impactor' technique, deflecting an asteroid from its course using a spacecraft. This strategy, along with other experimental ideas such as laser vaporization or gravity tractors, could be employed to alter the asteroid's trajectory. Authorities emphasize that the situation is not cause for panic, as early detection allows for planning and potential countermeasures
Asteroid Impact 2024 YR4 Planetary Defense NASA DART Mission Earth Collision
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Football Field-Sized Asteroid Poses a Small but Real Threat to EarthA newly discovered asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, has a greater than one percent chance of colliding with Earth in about eight years. Astronomers estimate the asteroid to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, roughly the size of a football field. While the risk is currently low, experts are closely monitoring its trajectory and potential impact sites. If it does collide, the impact would be catastrophic, releasing an energy equivalent to hundreds of Hiroshima bombs.
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