Recession forecasts 'are coming from models that put too much weight on the idea that interest rates went up quickly,' says St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard.
said they also anticipate a “mild recession” this year, while Bullard’s colleagues have penciled in an economic outlook that indicates zero growth or a contraction for much of the rest of the year after a relatively strong first quarter.seemed to tip the scales.
The bulk of Fed policymakers as of March felt one more rate increase, which would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, was all that would be needed. That could come at the Fed’s May 2-3 meeting. Traders of federal funds futures were giving about an 87% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the May meeting, virtually unchanged from before the release of Bullard’s remarks, according to CME Group’s FedWatch program. The chances of a quarter-percentage-point hike at the June 13-14 meeting also were largely unchanged at about 22%.Given how inflation and the economy are behaving, Bullard said, the fewer promises made the better.
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