Eric Nuttall: The bullish supply-demand case for oil — looming recession aside

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Eric Nuttall: The bullish supply-demand case for oil — looming recession aside
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Prices have fallen 33 per cent since the summer, writes Eric Nuttall. Read more.

What would a recession mean for the oil price, and can investors simultaneously believe in the likelihood of one yet still be wildly bullish on energy stocks?By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300A welcome email is on its way.

The market is myopically ignoring several factors that could in aggregate fully offset a severe recession’s impact on demandlead to an even tighter oil market in 2023: China is beginning to ease its COVID-19-zero policies that led to a drop in demand of approximately 0.5 million barrel per day; Europe is switching to oil from natural gas, which could boost demand by 0.

Global onshore oil inventories have fallen by 130 million barrels year to date, standing at a deficit of 221 million barrels compared to last year, according to Kpler Holding SA data, which uses satellites to track oil inventories in almost real time. But the 180 million barrels being released from the SPR ends in November, and there are signs that China has begun to ease many of its restrictions that have suppressed oil demand by approximately 135 million barrels.

Combining the already undersupplied state of the oil market with these supply factors could alone offset any recessionary induced demand weakness, yet there are also bullish supply factors that are being overlooked.

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