It’s an open question whether declining populations will reduce pressure on the natural world, say these academics.
China's population decline accelerated in 2023, extending a downward streak after more than six decades of growth as the country battles a looming demographic crisis. DARWIN, Australia: Right now, human population growth is doing something long thought impossible - it’s wavering. It’s now possible global population could peak much earlier than expected, topping 10 billion in the 2060s. Then, it would begin to fall., with a net loss of 100 people every hour.
What’s going on is known as demographic transition. As countries move from being largely rural and agrarian to industrial and service-based economies, fertility drops sharply. When low birth rates and low death rates combine, populations begin to fall. Countries in rapid decline may start to limit emigration to make sure they keep scarce workers at home and prevent further ageing and decline. The competition for skilled workers will intensify globally. Of course, migration doesn’t change how many people there are - just where they are located.
Then there’s the huge disparity in resource use. If you live in the United States or Australia, your carbon footprint is nearly double that of a counterpart in China, the largest overall emitter.
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