Robust copper and aluminum imports come with important caveats and the broader metals trade picture is far more mixed
Refined copper volumes hit a year-to-date monthly high in August and primary aluminum imports were the highest since November 2021.
Higher imports would seem to fit the bullish narrative that the Chinese government’s piecemeal stimulus program is gaining traction and the world’s largest buyer is recovering its metallic mojo. The average value of Russian imports was $2,162 per metric ton in August, compared with $2,279 for Malaysian-brand metal and $2,355 for both Australian and New Zealand imports.SLOW COPPER BOAT TO SHANGHAIHowever, cumulative imports of 2.29 million metric tons are still down by 8% on last year and net imports are down by 10% due to slightly higher exports in 2023 relative to 2022.
Imports of copper from DRC have accounted for more than 25% of total inbound shipments in the last two reported months and have kicked the headline figure higher.China was a net exporter of refined zinc last year for the first time since 2007. Western smelter outages sent physical premiums sky-high, sucking metal out of China as the supplier of last resort.
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