Opinion: A soft landing may still be within reach for the Canadian economy

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Opinion: A soft landing may still be within reach for the Canadian economy
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Stable supply chains and robust employment will help create the much-desired soft landing, but how the central bank reacts to commodity prices may determine how soft - or hard - it will be

Fraser Johnson is the Leenders Supply Chain Management Association Chair at the Ivey Business School at Western University in London, Ont.

I define a soft landing as the Bank of Canada successfully reducing inflation through a slowdown of the economy without aand accompanying high unemployment. Soft landings are rare and difficult to achieve, but the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index offers robust insights. The supply and demand distortions that ripple through the supply chain is referred to as the bullwhip effect. This phenomenon leads to higher supply chain costs, which get passed on to buyers and ultimately to consumers.

Third, while purchases, supplier lead times and inventories have stabilized, employment remains strong, with a three-month moving average of 55.5 versus 60.4 two years prior. Members of the Ivey PMI survey panel indicate that while employee turnover has declined, employee retention and filling vacancies remain a priority.

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