More than 2 million people in China may die from Covid-19 as the government rapidly abandons pandemic curbs, according to a new study by researchers in Hong Kong.
In the absence of a mass vaccination booster campaign and other measures to reduce the impact of the virus, some 684 people per million would die in a nationwide reopening, according to the report, which was co-authored by Gabriel Leung, the former dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, and two of his colleagues.
Members of Leung’s team were part of a group of Hong Kong public health experts who traveled to Beijing in early November to advise Chinese officials about lifting restrictions nationwide, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Leung. The report was published Wednesday and is a preprint, meaning it hasn’t yet been certified by peer review. China has a population of 1.41 billion.Covid infections are surging in Beijing, disrupting official government work and keeping people at home after authorities made an about-turn in their strict policy of managing virus cases.
Economists expect the figures to show a worsening in the economy in November even before the current Covid surge. Growth is expected to slow to just 3.2 percent this year, which would be the weakest pace since the 1970s barring 2020’s pandemic slump. Financial markets have rallied on the expectation that China’s reopening will spur consumer and business spending, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index of mainland shares jumping nearly 13 percent from an October 31 low.
The government scrapped much of its Covid restrictions within just a few weeks, allowing Covid-infected cases to isolate at home and canceling testing requirements for entering most public venues. That’s made it harder to gauge how widespread the outbreaks are since official tallies have plunged.
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