The Population Statement 2022 released this week presents two key challenges: the first, how to pay for the growing cost of government services; and the second, how to deal with the politics.
released on Friday reinforces a stark reality that will challenge policymakers in the future: the portion of working age Australians is set to decline, and dramatically so.
Precipitated by falling fertility and longer life expectancy, the old age dependency ratio – the ratio of working-age people to those over 65 – has plunged to 4 from 7.3 in 1975 ; the ratio is expected to drop to 2.7 by 2061.Attila Csaszar This presents two key challenges: first, how to pay for the growing cost of government services and the second, how to deal with the politics.“Migration played a crucial role in our economic development and will be critical in the future,” he said, though acknowledging the political reality, quickly added “if it’s well-considered and well-managed.”While Australia’s fertility rate has declined in recent decades – to about 1.
Under the government’s central scenario – in which the old age dependency ratio falls to 2.7 – Australia’s population is forecast to fall just short of 30 million by 2060, with three-quarters of the increase coming from migrants. Under a low-fertility scenario in which the old age dependency ratio falls to 2.5 – the fertility rate falls lower than the annual death toll, and the population only grows with migration.
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