ICYMI Big Tech is back, but be careful about going all in on rate-sensitive sectors
For example, copper and aluminum prices have already gained 25 per cent and 20 per cent from their respective October 2022 lows. And lumber and gasoline are up 30 per cent and 23 per cent from their respective December 2022 lows.
Then you have a U.S. economy with record low unemployment with 517,000 jobs created in January. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed there were more than 11 million job openings in December, up from 10.44 million the previous month, and ahead of the 10.25 million expected. For some perspective, there are now 1.9 jobs available for every person seeking work.
This isn’t good news for economists, who on average expect the unemployment rate to hit 4.8 per cent from 3.4 per cent, according to macro strategist Jim Bianco. He also points out economists expect zero growth in U.S. gross domestic product during the first three months of this year, and negative GDP growth in the following two quarters before rebounding later in the year.
Then there are those betting the economy will remain on a strong footing, deflation will come back and the Fed will resume easing by cutting rates. Not everyone believes this. “The S&P 500 has seemingly gone ‘all in’ on the soft-landing playbook,” Michael Darda, MKM Partners LLC’s chief economist, told Bloomberg.
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