[ANALYSIS] Hype around China is out. Vanilla diplomacy is in.

'Beyond balancing, President Marcos needs a smart approach.'

Selective disclosure of Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea, the norm during the Duterte regime, has changed to full transparency. The Philippine Coast Guard, which is on the frontlines of patrolling the WPS, has been tasked to inform the public on Chinese incursions, supported by photographs and videos. For the first time, the coast guard has included journalists in their air and sea patrols of the WPS.Apparently, Ukraine has had a tremendous effect on the thinking of Marcos.

While he did not elaborate, this was a veiled reference to China and the possibility of this power invading Taiwan. This would mean the Philippines will be affected – and may get involved – simply because of its geography. There is a fear that the Philippines may be drawn into a war not of its own making.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its implications on Taiwan appears to be one of the factors that drove Marcos’s shift to the US. One part of the Balikatan exercises took place in Batanes, the northernmost province of the Philippines which is near Taiwan. Three of the four new EDCA sites are located in the northern part of the country, facing Taiwan.

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