I AM going to break with protocol a bit for today’s column and share an interesting commentary by my good friend Dr. Robert “Bob” T. Wagner, president and chief executive officer of Aegis Inc. and founder of the Philippine Strategies Research Institute, under whose banner this particular thought piece is presented.
I AM going to break with protocol a bit for today’s column and share an interesting commentary by my good friend Dr. Robert “Bob” T. Wagner, president and chief executive officer of Aegis Inc. and founder of the Philippine Strategies Research Institute, under whose banner this particular thought piece is presented.
Bob is also the director of the Help Philippine Schools Foundation, and a keen observer of Philippine culture and history, having been first introduced to the country as a United States Marine in the mid-1970s.Bob’s article, presented below with his kind permission, has been edited a bit due to space constraints, but can be found in its original form on the Philippine Strategies website at https://philippinestrategies.com/articles/philippines-if-us-retained-control.***An alternate archipelago: The Philippines in 2025 under continued American stewardshipWhat if the Philippines had been retained as a US territory? This alternate history imagines the country under continued American stewardship, resulting in far better political stability, much less corruption and economic equitability that would allow all ships to float atop a rising tide.The fork in history’s roadIn the annals of colonial transitions, few moments carry as much weight as the US Congress’ deliberations over the Tydings-McDuffie bill, ratified in 1934. This legislation, formally known as the Philippine Independence Act, outlined a decade-long path to full sovereignty as its own country, culminating in independence on July 4, 1946. It was a response to growing Filipino nationalism by the elites, US domestic pressures to limit immigration from Asia, and economic interests seeking to protect American farmers from cheap Philippine imports. But what if Congress had rejected the bill? In this alternate timeline, the Philippines remains a US commonwealth or unincorporated territory, akin to Puerto Rico or Guam, spared the handover to a cadre of wealthy families who, in our real history, entrenched themselves in power and perpetuated cycles of corruption that have plagued the nation for decades.The “Ilustrados” — educated, landowning trustees of Spanish-Filipino descent — emerged in the late 19th century as reformers pushing for assimilation under Spanish rule, later adapting to American oversight. Post-independence, these families morphed into political dynasties, dominating governance and economy through nepotism and graft. In reality, this oligarchic grip has fueled endemic corruption, with the Philippines scoring a dismal 33 out of 100 on the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 114th globally. By 2025, surveys show corruption as the top concern for Filipino executives, undermining economic progress and exacerbating inequality.From dependency to integrated prosperityIn our real 2025, the Philippine economy grapples with persistent challenges: inflation hovering around 4–5 percent, poverty affecting over 20 percent of the population, and a reliance on remittances from overseas workers that ties millions to precarious farm or low-wage jobs. Corruption siphons billions, with historical patterns tracing back to post-independence elite capture of resources.Contrast this with an alternate scenario where rejection of Tydings-McDuffie extends the pre-1946 economic model indefinitely. Under American rule from 1898 to 1946, the Philippines benefited from free trade access to US markets, boosting exports while fostering infrastructure like roads, schools and ports. Though criticized for creating dependency, this era saw GDP growth and modernization that had been absent under Spanish rule. In this hypothetical 2025, the archipelago functions as a US economic outpost, similar to Puerto Rico, where federal oversight limits oligarchic monopolies and promulgates a middle class.Puerto Rico’s per capita income, around $35,000 in 2024, dwarfs the Philippines’ real $4,000, thanks to US citizenship enabling labor mobility and federal funds for welfare and infrastructure — despite its own issues like debt and hurricanes. An alternate Philippines might boast a GDP per capita closer to $30,000, with seamless integration into US supply chains. Manufacturing hubs in Manila and Cebu could rival those in Guam, focusing on electronics and pharmaceuticals, rather than the real world’s overreliance on BPO services. Corruption would be mitigated by US federal regulators enforcing transparency, potentially elevating the Philippines’ Corruption Perception Index score to 50–60.Although, as in Puerto Rico, economic sovereignty would be curtailed with the US dollar in use, federal trade laws dictating policies, and vulnerability to US recessions or tariffs, experts argue territories often outperform independent peers due to stable access to larger markets, avoiding the postcolonial pitfalls that left the real Philippines with a “farm economy” and later a “menial services” legacy.Stability and living wages over sovereigntyPolitically, the real Philippines in 2025 is a cauldron of dynastic rivalries and instability. Freedom House notes endemic graft, weak anticorruption bodies and political budget cycles that slash funding for social programs to favor pork-barrel projects. This stems from Ilustrado descendants who have controlled power since independence, turning politics into a family business.In the alternate reality, the Philippines remains under a governor appointed by Washington or elected by Filipinos, with a local legislature but ultimate authority resting with the US Congress, much like Puerto Rico’s nonvoting delegate system. Ilustrado influence wanes as US administrators prioritize meritocracy, drawing from the pre-1946 era when American commissions built civil service reforms. By 2025, politics might resemble a hybrid: local elections for mayors and governors, but federal vetoes on corrupt deals. No full voting rights in US elections, but US citizenship grants passports and mobility, eliminating brain drain.This setup would foster stability enjoyed by a much-reduced population of around 45 million versus the 120 million in the real Philippines today. An alternate Philippines would avoid real-world scandals like the pork barrel and flood control contract scams, evolving into a model territory with debates over statehood rather than independence, as was the case with Hawaii.Cultural fusion and reduced inequalityThe real Philippines in 2025 faces deep divides: urban-rural gaps, youth unemployment, and social unrest amid economic pressures. Corruption erodes trust, with 2025 surveys showing widespread disillusionment. Elite families perpetuate inequality, controlling land and media, stifling social mobility. Under prolonged US rule, society transforms through Americanization. In this 2025, literacy and health metrics mirror current US territories: Life expectancy at 80+ years made possible by universal access to programs like Medicaid. Cultural identity blends Filipino traditions with American influences; think widespread NBA fandom and Hollywood dominance but preserved Indigenous languages via federal protections and government-funded cultural centers.Inequality diminishes as federal laws curb land monopolies held by Ilustrado and Tsinoy family blocs. Social mobility rises with US citizenship, enabling migration to the mainland, mitigating the real-world’s OFW exploitation. Some will comment on cultural erosion and a “colonial mentality,” but this sentiment is countermanded by Filipinos having the ability to earn living wages and no longer being forced to take jobs overseas to feed their families.Conclusion: A bitter pill for the corrupt elites but real prosperity for average FilipinosThis alternate 2025 paints a Philippines of greater economic vitality, political accountability, and social equity, unburdened by the corrupt handover to elites that defined the current manifestation of independence. As the real nation navigates 2025’s midterm aftermath and ongoing graft battles, one wonders: Was the price of independence too high? This postulates a path not taken, where American oversight, for all its flaws, would have built a stronger, safer, much more prosperous Philippines.ben.kritz@manilatimes.netBluesky: @benkritz.bsky.social
Interesting Thought Experiment
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