More than a few eyebrows were raised at the weekend when it was reported a staggering 433 people won the 6/55 Grand Lotto. Could foul play be involved?
for an inquiryHowever, a basic understanding of probability and human psychology helps explain why this outcome isn’t as implausible as you might think.How the lottery works
Each person to purchase a lottery ticket picks six numbers between 1 and 55. The winning jackpot sequence is drawn at random. A ticket wins the jackpot if the six numbers on it are the same as the six numbers drawn.a five in 54 chance of getting the second, multiplied bya three in 52 chance of getting the fourth. multiplied byTogether, this means any given ticket has a 1 in 28,989,675 chance of winning the jackpot.
the chances were as little as “one out of one followed by 1,224 zeros” – a truly absurd number. This is smaller than the chances of flipping a typical coin 2,800 times in a row and seeing tails every time. However, this estimate ignores substantial empirical evidence about human behaviour and psychology. It naively assumes each person purchasing a ticket has an equal chance of selecting each of the 28,989,675 possible number combinations.
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