This article reflects on the events of 2024, highlighting the predicted uncertainties and negative outcomes. It discusses the global warming crisis, extreme weather events, and the failure of international climate negotiations.
First of three partsIf you want to stay in a good mood at this year's beginning, don't read this. It's too depressing.Here we are with a year, I predicted to be full of uncertainties and (unpleasant) surprises behind us in a column I wrote in early January entitled 'An uncertain world.' It's now early January of the following year, and we know now what the world has brought us.
It's not as bad as my worst case, but it did turn out much as I feared; 2024 was not a year to remember — except in the wrong way.Trump didn't only not lose the election, he won it in an incontestable way. He also won the Senate with a firm 52 out of 100 senator majority. In Congress, he won with a slim five-seat majority. Harris did what every losing presidentiable candidate, except Trump, has done, conceded gracefully.I said in January that some of the catastrophes were inevitable, and inevitable they have proved to be.The inevitable four outcomes expected in the year did occur:1. The world did get hotter in 2024. Exceeding the Paris agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius increase over the preindustrial level. So, droughts, floods, typhoons and cyclones are going to worsen. And this goes beyond 2024, into forever. The over 200 who died in Spain's worst flooding in a century are testament to that. As are the 150 who lost their lives when Kristine barreled through here. The US, Pakistan, too, and so many other places saw some of the worst calamities witnessed in history. Climate change was demonstrating its fury. Too little will be done to ameliorate this. And with a climate denier Trump in charge of the world's second-worst polluter, further worrying is inevitable. The failure of COP29 has proved my long-held belief that the rich world won't provide the money necessary to ameliorate the disaster ahead. And nothing will be at COP30 either. Maybe at COP80, reality will sink in. It's become, as the Economist said, 'a circus of political tirades, boycotts and fossil fuel celebrations
Climate Change Climate Change Global Warming Politics Trump COP29 Extreme Weather
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