There has been little movement in the frontlines for weeks, and there are signs Russia lacks offensive combat power
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Imagesenters its second calendar year at a delicate point. It is six weeks after the liberation of Kherson and there has been little movement in the frontlines either way since. There is not yet any sign of a full, renewed counteroffensive by the Ukrainians, not helped by the weather which has been above freezing, leaving muddy ground not conducive to military manoeuvre.
last week, which, if an accurate assessment, is not helpful to Kyiv, badly needing to retain momentum in the run-up to spring. But the political leadership of both countries clearly signalled a desire to try to break the deadlock with new goals for the new year. Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s new year address emphasised, predictably enough, a long-term goal of victory in the war. Twice, notably, he referenced liberating Melitopol, the most obvious target city, whose capture would cut off the land bridge without which Crimea cannot easily be resupplied. Zelenskiy said Ukrainian grandchildren would one day be able to “eat watermelons” in the recently liberated Kherson “and the cherry in Melitopol”.
All this may be too obvious, of course, and Ukraine has repeatedly shown it is willing to be tactically flexible, to probe Russia’s lines for weakness and seek a breakthrough.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin said the goal of Russia’s war, or special military operation, as he insists on calling it, was to protect “our people in our historical territories in the new regions of the Russian Federation” – a reference to the four oblasts that Moscow unilaterally annexed in September – implying that it remained necessary to try to capture them all, which would explain why the attacks on Bakhmut have continued throughout autumn and winter.