Are Aston Villa currently genuinely good, or just lucky? Fortunately, we have the technology and access to large data sets that can help shed some light.
Aston Villa's Alex Moreno celebrating after his team beat Newcastle United three-nil on April 15. Is this an indication that Villa is building that long-term culture of success it needs to stay at the top? — Reuters
What has been the reason for this meteoric rise? Most of the commentators online point to the team’s new possession-based playing style that builds from the back, preferring sharp, deliberate passes to midfield over long hopeful balls made under pressure. They also highlight the organised way Villa players drop into defence en masse, denying gaps for through balls.
If you want to know the details: Instead of scoring 13 goals, we would have normally been scoring only 11 or 12 with the chances we had; instead of only conceding two goals, we would have been more likely to let in seven or eight; and instead of gathering 19 points out of 21, it should have maybe been only 12 or 13.
Former Villa manager Dean Smith was a strong advocate of a culture of togetherness and collective responsibility, which undoubtedly contributed to the club’s promotion back into the Premier League in 2019 and its survival in the 2019/2020 season. Even though I can download football data from a website and have it create pretty graphs on the fly, that doesn’t mean I really understand what’s going on immediately. It’s like a team that thinks they can just buy expensive players and magically shoehorn them into a team that wins all the time .
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