The worst\u002Dcase free\u002Dfor\u002Dall scenario estimated that 34 million Canadians would have got the virus had it been allowed to run free
was published in the Canada Communicable Disease Report, a peer-reviewed medical journal published by PHAC. The article, which appeared in the July/August edition, presents a series of several counterfactual scenarios, from an approach with no public health measures or vaccines to scenarios where public health measures, like lockdowns and masks, were simply lifted earlier.Sign up to receive daily headline news from the Calgary Herald, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.
“In the absence of public health measures and vaccinations, a very large initial wave far exceeded hospital capacity as did a subsequent large Delta-driven wave as immunity waned, and this resulted in a very high number of hospitalizations and deaths.” The paper also looked at what would have happened if Canada had used public health measures, but not vaccines and found that would have resulted in roughly 360,000 deaths and close to a million hospitalizations. The estimates show that abandoning all public health measures and relying solely on vaccines would have produced roughly 325,000 deaths and 850,000 hospitalizations.
Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and researcher, said there is definitely evidence the pandemic could have been far worse, and the early days of the virus where it was poorly understood and ran rampant are a good indicator. It found all of those countries had higher death rates than Canada. It found the only countries with lower death rates adopted so called “zero COVID” approaches, countries like New Zealand, and Singapore which had harsh lockdowns and virtually zero travellers.
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