OPINION: Record migration should buy the Reserve Bank time to avoid lifting the cash rate to the 4.1 per cent plus level currently priced by markets.
for September, which initially triggered a savage 3.5 per cent drop in US equities only to be superseded by one of the most bizarre, five percentage point plus intraday rallies this column has observed.
The year-on-year pace for US core inflation rose from 6.3 per cent in August to 6.6 per cent in September. This is the highest core inflation since 1982. In rationalising one of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycles in the world, the RBA claimed it possessed private “liaison” data that pointed to a much more worrying wage growth picture than the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Whereas US house prices have only just registered their very first post-pandemic monthly decline of merely 0.3 per cent, Aussie house prices are cratering at 16 per cent a year. More precisely, dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities have declined by more than 6.2 per cent since their peak in May and are well and truly on track to hit our forecast of a total 15 to 25 per cent peak-to-trough loss.
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