For nearly three years, China has enforced incredibly strict rules to keep coronavirus transmission in check. But now they're facing a potentially deadly omicron surge.
China is doing many millions of tests a day to uncover cases of COVID-19 — part of its zero-COVID policy. Above: People line up for nucleic acid tests to detect the virus at a public testing site on Nov. 17 in Beijing.China is doing many millions of tests a day to uncover cases of COVID-19 — part of its zero-COVID policy. Above: People line up for nucleic acid tests to detect the virus at a public testing site on Nov. 17 in Beijing.
Is"zero COVID" even possible with omicron? What will happen if China reopens and SARS-CoV-2 begins to transmit freely across the country? Is China prepared for a surge? Those are questions that epidemiologists and public health experts are considering. Here's a look at the key queries – and what we know so far about the possible answers.
But as SARS-CoV-2 evolved to become more transmissible, this approach has become harder and harder to carry out, says epidemiologist"Omicron moves through a population really quickly," she says."It runs around the traditional public health measures that the world has used over the last two years, such as masking and quarantining."
Over the past year and half, every other country that attempted the zero-COVID approach has abandoned it, says Jennifer Nuzzo of Brown."Despite very aggressive measures such as high levels of mask usage, massive testing efforts and quarantining, China is still dealing with what's probably more community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 than the country is recognizing," Nuzzo says.
If China ends these restrictions, does that mean it will likely see a massive omicron surge as other countries have?that if omicron hits in China as hard as it did in the U.S., a full reopening may lead to nearly 6 million people admitted to ICUs and more than 600,000 deaths.
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