As election fervor builds, Polymarket’s predictions are sparking concerns about potential manipulation and market transparency...
Prediction market odds have diverged from traditional polls, complicating election outcome predictions
To gauge public sentiment, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as valuable tools.Polymarket made headlines recently for claiming that there was no evidence of market manipulation, despite significant bets placed by a prominent investor, often referred to as a “whale.” Analysts and on-chain investigators have raised alarms that certain accounts, one identified as “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by a single investor aiming to influence the odds in Trump’s favor.about the transparency of betting activities on the platform and the reliability of the predictions derived from it.
Currently, Trump holds a substantial lead over Kamala Harris, with odds reflecting a 64.3% to 35.6% advantage as perDespite theoretical restrictions on U.S users, market odds on Polymarket align closely with those found on regulated platforms like. The latter platform reported a 61% to 39% outlook for Trump at press time. On PredictIt, Trump’s odds sat at 59%, in comparison to Harris’s 45%.
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