Over the past decade, Democrats’ registration advantage has shrunk. Still, experts say registration can't tell you exactly how a closely divided state like Pennsylvania will vote.
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The number of people registered as independents or under a third party has also grown, from 11% of total registered voters in 2008 to 15% this year. The party’s relatively lower registration rate is “not good , but I’m not sure it spells doom,” said Medvic. Sam Chen, a GOP political consultant based in the Lehigh Valley, pointed to the same dynamic and noted that it can be seen in the commonwealth’s changing registration geography. Democrats used to dominate counties in the industrial and rural parts of the state, particularly in the southwest and northeast. Now those areas are redder, while Democrats have consolidated support in suburbs, particularly in the populous southeast.
In her experience, voters can be slow to change registration even as their political opinions change. Sometimes they vote across party lines, opt to split their ticket and vote for candidates in both parties, or just don’t turn out to cast a ballot. Political consultants and academics also say the increase in independent and third-party voters is significant and could indicate a growing disdain for the major political parties and a wider apathy that results in low voter turnout, such as during the 2024 primary election., which excludes independent and third-party voters from choosing which major party candidates will end up on the November general election ballot.
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